Around the NBA: A deep dive into the Detroit Pistons

Less than two years after a historically awful 14-68 season, the Pistons are now the #1 team in the league.

It’s undoubtedly one of the greatest turnarounds in league history, but many are still questioning their place among basketball’s elite. Now that we have 60 games worth of sample, there should be more than enough data to see just how good Detroit is, and where they place in the East’s hierarchy.

Let’s start with their fundamentals.

The Pistons’ style has remained the same

Detroit hasn’t changed their style: they’ve simply improved on their strengths and limited their weaknesses. The Pistons are attempting 36.6% of their shots around the rim this season (3rd league-wide) compared to 33.2% last year, and have improved their efficiency from 65.9% to 66.7% while doing so. On top of that, Detroit has decreased the number of threes they take. The Pistons’ poor spacing has resulted in opponents benefiting when they bomb from deep, so they’ve cut down their 3-point frequency from 36.1% to 31.9%. Given that Detroit’s making just 34.9% of their attempts (22nd league-wide), I’d consider that a win.

With the Pistons being a medi0cre halfcourt offense, they’ve also prioritized running more, as their transition frequency has increased from 17% to 18% (3rd league-wide). That may not sound like a big change, but it directly impacts the number of half-court possessions they have too, which has decreased from 76.9% to just 75.5% this year (lowest league-wide). These subtle but important changes add up quickly, and it’s helped Detroit sport a top-10 offensive rating (117.6) when it was just 16th last season (115.1).

Duren’s leap has been Detroit’s most important development

Of course, the biggest improvements have come from their stars. Jalen Duren, specifically, has taken an All-Star leap that has given Detroit a second cornerstone piece to build around. Duren has increased his scoring from 11.8 to 18.5 points per game while maintaining good efficiency, although his true shooting has dropped from 70.3% to 66.9%. Still, that’s a worthwhile tradeoff given his usage has gone from 16.1% to 20.8%, which is in the 84th percentile amongst all big men. Importantly, Duren’s isolations have more than doubled from last season and he’s averaging 1.08 points on such plays, which is also in the 84th percentile in the entire league. These plays only occur on 9% of possessions (outside the top 80 league-wide), but it does give Detroit a last-ditch option if needed, while also taking some offensive burden off Cade.

Duren’s self-created shots mostly come in the mid-range, an area where he is shooting a respectable 49%. He’s also taking 31% of his shots from that area, which is a 13% increase from last season.

Defensively, Duren’s rim protection has improved drastically. Opponents have gone from shooting 62.9% within 6 feet of the basket last season to just 58.8% this year, with the latter number being 5.3% lower than the opponents’ expected field goal percentage. It’s not elite by any means, but Duren has now turned himself into a good defensive centre when he was a liability in previous seasons.

The biggest defensive improvement Duren’s made is his positioning and decision-making. He’s averaging the lowest foul rate of his career and now puts himself in the right spots to contest shots. In the first clip below, Duren goes straight up to avoid contact and reacts mid-air to switch arms and block the layup attempt. Then, in the second clip, he helps cover for the driver at the last second, so that McCain can’t easily dump it down to Drummond.

Defense has been Detroit’s calling card

The Pistons are currently the #2 ranked defense with a 109.1 DRTG that’s “only” 1.7 points behind OKC. Considering how far ahead the Thunder’s defense was to start the season, it’s impressive that Detroit is within striking distance, and the difference between the Pistons’ 109.1 DRTG and the third-ranked Spurs at 111.4 is the difference between San Antonio and 9th-ranked Phoenix (113.7).

In fact, Detroit has had the best defense league-wide since late November, with rim protection being their biggest strength. Opponents are only shooting 62.9% overall within 4 feet of the basket, which is the fourth-lowest mark in the league. More importantly, the Pistons are also allowing just 27.7% of opponent shots to come in that area, which is the third-fewest mark league-wide too. The combination of both limiting the quantity and quality of attempts in the most dangerous offensive area gives Detroit an extremely high defensive floor, but they’ve also been somewhat lucky as well.

Due to their emphasis on rim protection, the Pistons are conceding 39.1% of all opponent shots to come from three — the 11th highest mark in the league. Fortunately, teams have made just 34.8% of those attempts, which is the fourth-lowest mark this season. Given that the league average three-point percent is 36.1%, Detroit might be due for some regression, but their fundamentals are so sound that their floor is still a top 3 defense, with OKC being the only team that’s definitively better.

The same can’t be said about their offense…

It’s a different story on offense. The Pistons have a 120.1 ORTG with Cade playing — equivalent to Boston’s 3rd ranked offense — but that drops to an abysmal 112.1 when he’s off, which would rank 26th league-wide. Even with Duren’s improvements, Detroit lacks a reliable second creator behind Cade, although they’re still a +3.0 in those minutes due to their elite defense.

Nothing about their playstyle changes when Cade sits. Detroit has just become so reliant on him that they can’t generate efficient shots when he’s not at the helm, and it also takes away one of their most reliable offensive sets: the pick and roll between Cade and Duren. Cade is second only to Luka in the entire league in P&Rs run per game, scoring a robust 0.95 points on such possessions (73rd percentile). Duren benefits even more, as he also ranks in the top 20 in rolls per game while scoring an absurd 1.38 points on those plays (86th percentile). Without their offensive fulcrum, the Pistons are simply lost on offense. They don’t have a secondary ballhandler good enough to be a caricature of Cade, and they also lack a deadeye shooter to run motion sets for.

Still, I would consider Detroit to be the clear favorite to come out of a flawed East, mainly due to how they match up with the other contenders. The Pistons have beaten the Knicks by 84 points in three games this season and also possess the Cavs’ achilles heal: size and physicality in the frontcourt. Boston is the real wildcard amongst the East’s elite given Tatum’s potential return, but until that happens, Detroit is the safest bet.

If the Pistons do make it to the finals, though, I can’t see them beating whichever juggernaut comes out of the West. I believe that all three of OKC, Denver, and San Antonio are better than Detroit, and the West team should be clear favorites in the finals regardless of the matchup. Even so, this season will go down as a resounding success for the Pistons, and they have enough assets to acquire help in the offseason to come back even better next year.

This week, please check out Marilyn’srecap of the Spurs’ past week! San Antonio could legitimately win the title this year, and the league is coming to grips with that.

Thanks for reading!

All stats courtesy of Cleaning the Glass and NBA Stats.