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As the third week of Spring Training gets underway, the San Diego Padres have continued to show promise in their Cactus League play. They have remained competitive in games they had no business being competitive in. As hard as it is to gauge the weight of spring performance, it has been exciting to watch.
Now that players’ roles have become slightly more concrete, it might be time to take a look at lineup projections for left-handed starters versus right-handers. How will the lineup math work when facing lefty Tarik Skubal on Opening Day in comparison to righty Jack Flaherty a few days later?
Against lefties
- Xander Bogaerts SS
- Jackson Merrill CF
- Manny Machado 3B
- Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
- Miguel Andujar DH
- Jake Cronenworth 2B
- Ramón Laureano LF
- Nick Castellanos 1B
- Freddy Fermin C
Week one of Spring Training found San Diego with an interesting order for the Padres’ starting four. Manager Craig Stammen stated that it’s uncertain whether or not this will be a part of the Opening Day lineup but also argued for the logic behind the change.
This lineup utilizes newcomers Andujar and Castellanos for their strengths against left-handers, putting the latter at his new position of first base. Andujar would likely be taking the starting reps at DH most of the time, except to give one of the starting outfielders a day off.
The rest of the lineup is pretty straightforward, with it being balanced between lefty and righty bats, it could make for a markedly better year against left-handed pitchers.
Against righties
- Xander Bogaerts SS
- Jackson Merrill CF
- Manny Machado 3B
- Fernando Tatis Jr. RF
- Gavin Sheets 1B
- Ramón Laureano LF
- Miguel Andujar DH
- Jake Cronenworth 2B
- Freddy Fermin C
Sticking with the top four from the last lineup (since that’s much less likely to change due to pitching), this supplants Castellanos at first base for Gavin Sheets. The 2025 breakout player for San Diego mashes against righties, and can play passable defense at the cold corner.
The rest of the lineup is likely about the same. The problem is the lack of left-handed bats in the lineup. There’s only three lefty bats (Merrill, Sheets, and Cronenworth) with the rest being right-handed batters.
It’s possible that it won’t affect too much as long as they’re spread throughout the lineup. But the lineup math could get difficult if you move one of them and then the Friars are struggling to solve for a streak of right-handed bats.
Who’s warming up the bench?
- Luis Campusano C
- Samad Taylor/Jose Miranda INF
- Sung-Mun Song INF
- Bryce Johnson/Alex Verdugo OF
These players are the ones likely on the bench no matter who’s on the mound. Apart from them, San Diego would probably have Sheets benched against lefties and Castellanos and Andujar versus righties.
Campusano is currently the favorite for the backup catcher role behind Fermin. It’s incredibly unlikely that he gets beat out for that role since he is out of options and needs to make the major-league roster or else clear waivers to be sent down to Triple-A.
Song has been battling back from a minor oblique injury that has slowed his emergence into MLB, but has still managed to log two hits across his first five games. He’s likely to fill a versatile utility role for the club, playing wherever is needed.
The fight for the last spots is now between Taylor and Miranda for the infield, and Johnson and newcomer Verdugo for the outfield. The former have been destroying baseballs so far in Cactus League play, hitting .462 and .412, respectively.
Johnson is the likely candidate for outfield depth, given his tenure and consistency with San Diego. That said, if Verdugo manages to turn it up in the next few weeks, he could make his way onto the big-league roster.
How the lineup math works out will be a matter of scrutiny on Stammen’s part, and it’s likely it won’t be figured out for the next few weeks. Whatever happens, the Friars have a great problem on their hands: too many good options.